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In Arlington, It's 80 In '08!

(Arlington County Democratic Committee)

Report from the Chairman

Peter Rousselot

The Arlington County Democratic Committee has set a goal of getting 80% of the Democratic vote in Arlington for Barack Obama and Mark Warner, providing each of them with a huge margin of victory in Arlington to power them to victory in Virginia. Our goal requires us essentially to double the margin of victory in Arlington that John Kerry obtained in 2004. Can we do it? Yes we can!! Here's how.

We plan to increase the Presidential election turnout in Arlington from the 95,219 recorded in 2004 to at least 105,000--an increase in turnout of about 10%. Our 105,000 minimum turnout target represents 77.7% of the 135,000 voters registered in Arlington as of May 1. However, several thousand of the voters on the rolls as of that date have been registered for many years, and have never voted in any Arlington election. When these voters are excluded from the registered voter totals, our minimum turnout target of 105,000 voters actually exceeds 80% of the effectively available registered voter pool.

We plan to capture a minimum of 80% of our projected 105,000 Arlington turnout for Obama and Warner. That translates into a minimum of 84,000 Democratic votes for the top of our ticket. Achieving that goal will leave 21,000 votes for John McSame and any stray independent party candidates, providing Obama and Warner with a 63,000 vote margin coming out of Arlington. How does this compare with Kerry in 2004?

In 2004, Kerry received 63,987 votes in Arlington, while Bush and the stray independents got 31,232, giving Kerry a margin of 32,755. How can we possibly almost double Kerry's Arlington margin?  Here are some of the major factors that convince us we can do it:

• In the February 12, 2008 Presidential Primary in Arlington, 83% of the voters who voted selected the Democratic ballot, leaving the Republicans with only 17%. The 44,694 people who voted Democratic in that primary exceeded by almost 15,000 the entire turnout for all political parties in the 2007 general election in Arlington. Taken together, these statistics suggest a whopping amount of enthusiasm in Arlington for our Democratic Party candidates, and a huge amount of disillusion in Arlington with the Republican Party candidates. Bush and the stray independents got 33% of the Arlington vote in 2004, but McSame and the other GOP Presidential candidates got only 17% of the Arlington vote in the 2008 Presidential Primary. Thus, the GOP share of the Arlington vote was cut in half.

• For the first time in any of our memories, a Democratic Presidential campaign has made Virginia a top-tier battleground state, and is going to devote the unprecedented financial resources that come with that designation. On top of that, the Obama Presidential Campaign has more resources to devote everywhere in the United States than any other Democratic campaign in our memories. As a pacesetting Democratic Committee in Virginia, the Arlington County Democratic Committee plans to work closely with the Obama for President Campaign, the Mark Warner for Senate Campaign, the 2008 Virginia Coordinated Campaign, the Fairfax County Democratic Committee, other local Democratic committees, the progressive blogosphere, and all other interested partners to be sure that all of these resources are carefully coordinated and targeted to their best advantage in Arlington and in Virginia as a whole.

• The Obama for President Campaign is planning a massive voter registration drive in Arlington and across Virginia between now and the new voter registration cut-off date of October 6, 2008. We believe that over 95% of these new registrants will vote Democratic.

• The Republican Party of Virginia is in total disarray as a result of the bitterly contested VA GOP Convention "victories" of Jim Gilmore and Jeff Frederick. In light of the disastrous fiscal policies of the Gilmore administration and their impacts in Arlington, combined with the wildly right wing agenda of Jeff Frederick, large segments of Arlington Republican voters are very disillusioned with the VA GOP brand. This will lead many of them to vote for Obama and Warner, and others who can't quite bring themselves to do that to stay home.

• The Iraq war is bitterly unpopular in Arlington, and John McSame has literally embraced both George Bush and his Iraq war policies. Again, this heavily publicized factor will lead many Arlington GOP voters to vote for Obama and Warner or stay home. 

• Increase total voter turnout in Arlington by about 10% above the 2004 level
• Increase the Democratic percentage of the vote in Arlington from the Kerry level of 67% to at least 80%
• Provide Obama and Warner with at least a 63,000 Democratic vote margin in Arlington